Abstract: In order to estimate the effect of improving security situation information system, put forward the estimation model of information system based on data mining security situation. The method of collecting a lot of information system security of the historical data, and then using data mining combined kernel function to dig out the characteristics of information system security situation from the historical data, the establishment of information system security situation assessment model, finally model were compared, and the other information system security situation assessment results show that the model can be found to change the trend of information system security situation, get information system security situation better contrast model estimation results, the estimation results can improve the security of the information system and formulate corresponding preventive measures.