多轮次群体决策中动态专家权重研究

Dynamic Weights of Experts in Multiple-Round Group Decision-Making

摘要: 在分析和总结已有群体决策中专家权重确定方法的基础上,提出了群体决策中动态专家权重的通用模型,并重点研究了反应专家各轮次间自信度和受群体影响程度的权重修正量γ^(t),分专家返回权向量型、专家返回评价分值型和专家返回评价矩阵型三种情况,具体讨论了γ^(t)计算过程和修正后个体专家判断值;最后,通过一个算例证明了方法的有效性,并得出权重修正量需综合考虑的结论.

Abstract: Based on analyzing and summarizing the method of experts' weights in group decision-making,a universal experts' weights model is brought out.Focus on the character of multiple-round decision-making,rectification parameters γ^(t) reflecting experts' self-confidence and effect produced by others for experts' weights is studied carefully in returning vector,evaluation data,and evaluation matrix circumstances.at last,this method is illustrated by an example,and a conclusion about how to adjust weights is discussed.